2022 Business Outlook by Dr. Balraj Kistow

While 2021 started with the promise of hope it did not did not always deliver on that promise.  The advent of the vaccine at the start of the year gave indication of a ray of light at the end of the COVID 19 tunnel, but it just did not play out like that.  Unexpected hesitancy to the vaccine, gross inequity in vaccine distribution globally, consecutive variants, supply chain disruption and the ensuing uncertainty has framed a nervous outlook for 2022.

If we start from a position of what we know and work from there, we can derive some not so pleasant possibilities.  We know that the Omicron variant is multiple times more transmissible than the deadly Delta variant, and it is causing surges in places where it is prevalent.  We know that the supply chain issue will most likely take at least the better part of 2022 to  stabilise, and that our macroeconomic fundamentals, even without COVID 19, is weakening with bleak growth forecast.  The data as we close the year is showing rising COVID 19 caseloads, increasing deaths and the health care system becoming strained.  However the policy has shifted to opening up of various sectors including schools, beaches and other leisure activities, albeit within a safe zone model.

Given this, it is very likely that when the Omicron hits (and it is more “when” than “if”) and with the thrust to re-open, especially  with the persistence of expanding face-to-face teaching despite stakeholder resistance, there will be a surge in cases.  The best hope is that the Omicron is not as severe as its predecessors and there is an increase in vaccination rate given the new safe zone approach.  This, together with the supply chain issues and foreign exchange constraint will lead to increasing costs for producers and consumers alike.  When we add the challenges in the energy sector, sluggish regional growth, and rising debt, 2022 is a year of very cautious optimism.

However, lets hope I am wrong.